Will Hotel Direct Bookings Overtake OTAs? Digging Deeper Into Our Forecast

The Skift Research team recently published our much anticipated Hotel Distribution Outlook 2024, and one of the key takeaways was that, by 2030, direct digital channels could overtake online travel agencies as the dominant distribution channel for hoteliers.

We said direct channels could potentially generate more than $400 billion of hotel gross bookings versus $333 billion from OTAs. 

Our report generated buzz across the industry. Hotels vs. OTAs is – and always will be – a topic of much heated debate. Many are skeptical that the direct channel could overtake booking sites. 

But is our forecast really that controversial? The tools that drive direct bookings have improved dramatically over the past decade and big hotel brands have made deep inroads into owning their customers. The trend toward direct booking is clear.

Will the shift happen by 2030 as our initial forecast says? We can't say for sure – 5 years is a long time, and, as we note, OTAs will continue to be critical. But let's look more