United Sees 2023 as Setting Course for Its Post-Pandemic Future

When the pandemic first struck in 2020, airline executives were quick to say there was no crystal ball to predict the future of the industry. Now, three years after the pandemic began and as it reaches its natural ebb, United Airlines says that future is coming into focus, with this year setting the path for the airline industry’s post-pandemic future.

Or at least that’s how they explained the carrier’s -0.4 percent operating margin in the quarter. The first quarter historically has been tough for Northern Hemisphere airlines, as the industry enters the trough after holiday demand and before the summer peak season. But United’s leaders say they are seeing something different now, and although they say it’s too early to tell if this is the post-pandemic future, they feel confident they have spotted a trend.

“You can’t run your airline like it’s 2019,” CEO Scott Kirby said. “It’s different and harder now.”

Business travel, which historically is strong in January and February has not returned to its 2019 level, especially in United’s domestic network, Kirby told analysts during the airline’s first-quarter earnings call on Wednesday. “There is a clear change in seasonality,” he sa